Developing a Talent Identification Management Model for Athletics in Iran: A Sequential Exploratory Mixed-Methods Study

Abstract

Talent identification in athletics is frequently treated as a one-time selection exercise, although athletic potential develops through dynamic interactions among biological maturation, event-specific demands, coaching, organizational support, and opportunity. Iran lacks an integrated, context-sensitive management framework connecting schools, provincial boards, clubs, coaches, families, and the national federation. This study developed and quantitatively validated a grounded model of talent identification management for Iranian athletics. An applied-developmental sequential exploratory mixed-methods design was used. In the qualitative phase, 15 experts were selected through purposive and theoretical sampling and interviewed using a semi-structured protocol. Data were analyzed through open, axial, and selective coding following the systematic grounded-theory approach. In the quantitative phase, a researcher-developed questionnaire derived from the qualitative categories was administered to 400 managers, federation and provincial-board experts, athletics coaches, physical-education teachers, school-sport specialists, academics, and sport-science specialists. The measurement and structural models were assessed using partial least squares structural equation modeling in SmartPLS 3. Analysis produced 170 initial codes, refined to 120 non-redundant open codes, 30 subcategories, and 15 main categories. The paradigm comprised causal conditions (inefficiency of the existing system; complexity of talent), the core phenomenon (organizing the talent cycle; sustainable talent development), contextual conditions (regional and social contexts), intervening conditions (policy environment; macro-level support), strategies (institutional integration; professionalization of implementation; stakeholder mobilization), and outcomes (identification effectiveness; athlete flourishing; a stronger championship pipeline; development of athletics). All five structural paths were positive and significant: causal conditions to the core phenomenon (β = .95, t = 133.13); core phenomenon to strategies (β = .96, t = 119.76); contextual conditions to strategies (β = .78, t = 88.61); intervening conditions to strategies (β = .95, t = 121.23); and strategies to outcomes (β = .96, t = 175.18). R² values were .917, .937, and .936 for the core phenomenon, strategies, and outcomes, respectively. Sustainable athletics talent development in Iran requires a continuous, evidence-informed governance system rather than isolated screening campaigns. The model provides an actionable framework for coordinated identification, event allocation, development, monitoring, retention, and equitable access.